Nippon News Network which includes Nippon TV conducted a public opinion poll with the Yomiuri Shimbun from October 22 to 24 and analyzed the situation in the final stages of the House of Representatives election. The Liberal Democratic Party is struggling in more districts than in the early stages of the election, and the possibility of falling short of a single-party majority of 233 seats is increasing. The junior coalition partner Komeito is also expected to end up with less than the 32 seats it had before the lower house dissolution, leaving the ruling coalition on the edge of maintaining its majority.    

Let’s take a look at the opposition parties. The Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan is expected to maintain its early momentum and add about 40 seats to its pre-election total of 98 seats.    

The Japan Innovation Party, or Nippon Ishin no Kai in Japanese, is struggling in the proportional representation, and it will be difficult to maintain the 44 seats it held before the election.    

The Communist Party is expected to secure the 10 seats it held before the election.    

The Democratic Party for the People is poised to significantly increase its seats from the pre-election count of seven.    

The Reiwa Shinsengumi is expected to increase its number of seats from the three it held before the election.    

The Social Democratic Party and the Sanseito are likely to secure the one seat they held before the election.    

Against this backdrop, the Japan Conservative Party, a political organization, is maintaining its momentum to win seats both in the electoral districts and in proportional representation.    

However, a certain number of poll respondents did not specify candidates or parties they would vote for in single-seat constituencies or proportional representation, indicating that the situation could change in the future.

This survey was conducted via phone and the internet, with responses from a total of 247,576 people.    

Fujii Takahiko, news zero anchor: 

It’s a tight situation whether Prime Minister Ishiba can secure a majority for the ruling parties, which he had set as a goal.    

Oguri Izumi, NTV chief commentator:  

Exactly. That’s why I’d like to focus on two key numbers.    

First is 233. This is the majority of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives. Before the election was announced, the LDP held 247 seats, and Komeito held 32 seats, meaning the LDP alone held a majority. Together, the two parties had 279 seats.    

Even if the LDP and Komeito lose 46 seats this time, they can still barely maintain a majority. If the two parties fall short of a majority, it would be the first time since the 2009 House of Representatives election that they would be relegated to the opposition.    

The other key number is 177.  This is the largest number of seats the leading opposition party has won under the current electoral system, with the exception of the two times when there were changes in government.  

 In the 2003 election, which was called by then Prime Minister Koizumi Junichiro, the Democratic Party led by Kan Naoto won this number of seats.    

The opposition is showing momentum this time as well, and  it will be interesting to see how much they can increase their seats.    

Fujii Takahiko, news zero anchor:  

In addition to the LDP’s so-called “slush fund” issue, will the news reported on “news zero” on October 23 that 20 million yen was distributed to political party branches represented by unapproved candidates also work to decrease the LDP’s seats?    

Oguri Izumi, NTV chief commentator:  

Since this survey was conducted from Oct. 22 to 24,  it’s unclear how much impact the news had.   

 However, the LDP feels a sense of crisis over reports that an amount equal to the 20 million yen distributed to official candidates for endorsement fees and activity expenses was also paid to party branches where non-endorsed candidates serve as branch leaders. 

On October 24, the LDP distributed a document from the offices of the party president and secretary general to official candidates, explaining this issue.  

To summarize the content, it says that the transparency of the funds distributed was ensured through audits by certified public accountants, and the details were submitted to the election management committee, allowing the public to check the expenditures.  The purpose of the funds is strictly for expanding the party’s influence, and unendorsed branch leaders are not allowed to use them for their own election campaign activities.  

Furthermore, it asserts that there are no grounds for the accusation of “disguised endorsements.”  

However, opposition party leaders point out that while the LDP claims to disclose finances, the line between the political activities of party branches and the election activities of candidates is unclear.  

Another opposition leader criticizes the claim of expanding influence, saying that the logic lacks persuasiveness, calling it a form of stealth support for the slush funds-implicated lawmakers.   

So how will this issue affect the election results? One opposition party official remarked that the LDP is sinking due to the 20-million-yen issue.     

A senior member of the Constitutional Democratic Party feels that they are just one step away from change in government.  

On the other hand, a senior member of the LDP commented that the 20-million-yen issue is a major crisis, but they have to move forward.    

Another LDP official noted that the sense of crisis within the party is increasing, which helps tighten their focus.    

Each party will face the voting day on October 27 from their respective positions.